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Outlook 2022: peering through the jungle of economic news

Coface ventures perilous predictions for 2022 on the world economy and a specific focus on Germany.

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Pregled Evra po 20 letih

Ob 20. obletnici uvedbe evra v evropske denarnice je skupina za ekonomske raziskave družbe Coface preučila učinke te spremembe v makroekonomskem smislu.

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China will continue to expand its role as a main destination for Latin American exports at the expense of the U.S.

Coface observes that LatAm countries' foreign sales growth rates are expected to exceed their domestic demand expansion. Indeed the region's activity rebound should be lower than the global average recovery, and more specifically lower than the Chinese and U.S. recoveries. Therefore, sales to China and the U.S. should post a bright performance in 2021. In terms of significance for Latin American exports, China should continue to gain ground over the U.S.

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Has the global retail sector returned to normal?

The retail sector's activity has been affected by the COVID crisis through social distancing measures and closure of stores. However, the effect of the pandemic on the sector greatly varies across countries and segments. Check our study to know it all.

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New wave of post-pandemic social movements: international trade as collateral victim

While the restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic put a temporary stop to the upsurge of protest movements, a new wave is on the horizon. Protests, mainly in emerging countries, are expected to increase due to an unprecedented deterioration of socio-economic indicators.

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Fokus: Insolventnost podjetij v Evropi - začasne spremembe spodbudne

Kljub obsegu gospodarskega šoka in začasne narave teh ukrepov pa slednji ne bodo preprečili znatnega povečanja insolventnosti, ko ukrepi ne bodo več v veljavi. Zato se v drugi polovici leta 2020 in leta 2021 pričakuje močan porast insolventnosti po vsej Evropi.

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Fokus: So poslovne bilance španskih in italijanskih podjetij pripravljene na šok COVID-19?

Španija in Italija sta gospodarstvi, ki jih bo COVID-19 najbolj prizadel, po napovedih Coface-a se bo v letu 2020 špansko gospodarstvo skrčilo za 12,8%, italijansko pa za 13,6%.

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Country and sector risks worldwide: Some emerging economies become increasingly vulnerable

Higher oil prices and continued capital outflows from emerging markets mark the third quarter of 2018

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US protectionism: Significant knock-on effect on trade partners of targeted countries

Use of import tariffs by the US has doubled since 2009, with a sharp increase between 2016 and 2018. Nevertheless, these tariffs still only account for one-sixth of protectionist measures in place worldwide.

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Central & Eastern European insolvencies: The good times are over

Poland, Hungary and particularly Croatia registered significant surges in insolvencies while Slovakia and Czech Republic recorded decreases

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Political risks in Asia are on the rise

According to Coface’s Political Risk Index, Asia scored 45% on the latest risk ranking, above the world average of 35% (...)

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Country and sector risks worldwide: Signals of risk on the increase in the 2nd quarter

Downgraded assessments in the majority this quarter

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Global metals sector: prices to continue to rise in 2018, ahead of a possible slight decline in 2019

On the back of highly-synchronised economic growth, technological shifts boosting a surge in the use of metals and a shortfall in supply, metals have been benefitting from a bull market since mid-2016.

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Election season in Latin America: Growing political risks undermine economic activity

The Coface Political Risk Index takes into consideration various risk aspects: political and social fragility issues, conflicts and terrorism.

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Poland Payment Survey 2018: Payment delays mounting amid robust economic growth

According to our analysis, covering a wide range of company sizes and sectors, sales on credit are made extensively, with all surveyed companies having written terms and conditions to this end, and that 99% of corporates continue to face payment delays, some of which are long and unlikely to be fulfilled.

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New Coface Political Risk Index in 159 countries

The widespread rise in the political risk conceals mixed regional dynamics.

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Poland Payment Survey: Payment delays pervade Polish corporates

Coface's payment survey confirms that sales on credit are being extensively used by Polish companies. Although credit periods have become common practice, it does not mean that receivables are being paid on time.

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South Africa's economy challenged by crises in agriculture and mining, amid fears of an investment downgrade

Concerns over the country’s economic performance have been amplifying, due to its prolonged economic decline since 2011.

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After a series of shocks in 2015 and 2016, Turkey's economy is coming to the end of its new “Tulip era”

Greater political uncertainty resulting from two parliamentary elections in 2015, drying global liquidity due to the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike process and the weaker Turkish lira, all contributed to dragging down growth.

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Uberisation of French economy: a positive impact on employment but will it last?

Taxi company insolvencies in France increased by nearly 60% in one year, rising from 141 cases in August 2015, to 224 at the end of August 2016 and resulting in the loss of 3.38 jobs on average (...)

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