Third consecutive year of recession
The Austrian economy has started its third year of recession. While it is expected that the decrease in activity will be merely a minor one in the first half of 2025, with even a small uptick in growth forecast for the second half of the year, it will not be enough dynamic to push the yearly GDP growth rate over the growth threshold. The weakness of the economy is mainly due to the recession in industry which originated in Germany. Almost 29% of all Austrian exports (12.5% of the GDP) go to Germany, often in the form of intermediate products for the German manufacturing sector. The latter has been in recession since 2019 and has consequently weighed on the Austrian economy. Although no significant recovery is expected for the sector in 2025, it is at least expected to stabilise at a low level. Conversely, the Austrian construction sector seems to have hit its low point in 2024. Building permits are slowly increasing again and grants of new mortgage loans and property transactions have resumed in the last several months. A slight increase in activity is also expected for the tourism sector. The pre-pandemic level was reached in 2024. The initial figures for 2025 indicate that the moderate growth will continue, partly because purchasing power is slowly returning in the key visitor countries. Slightly positive impetus is likely to emerge in the financial sector in 2025 (4.3% of GDP). The trend should be driven by lower interest rates and the resultant slightly higher demand for credit. In 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its key interest rate (deposit rate) by 25 basis points on four occasions to 3.00%. In the spring of 2025, two further 25 basis-point rate cuts ensued which took the deposit rate down to 2.5%. Two further rate cuts should be in the pipeline for 2025 until the “neutral” level of around 2% is reached. This interest rate level should neither slow nor drive up the European economy.
Little momentum is expected to come from private consumption. Household income increases will continue to be relatively strong due to the one-year lag in responding to inflation (at least for collective wage agreements, pensions and welfare spendings). Nominal gross wage per capita should rise by 3.5% in 2025 after an increase of 8.3% in 2024, however unchanged high inflation pressure will eat up most of this increase and result in only a small improvement of purchasing power. The yearly inflation rate surged in January 2025 on back of the termination of the electricity price cap, higher CO2-emission prices and increased grid fees. The inflation rate should post slightly above 3% given price increases in the service sector. While the savings rate reached a high point with 10.6% in 2024, the Wifo Institute only estimates a reduction to 10.2% in 2025 due to the ongoing high level of geopolitical uncertainty. Originally, a further adjustment of income tax thresholds, operating as a delayed part of the (2022-2024) tax reform, was planned for 2025. This last adaptational step was cancelled by the new government to bolster the budget results. Some transfer payments to the lower income groups were refused as well.
Corporate investment is expected to only pick up marginally during the second half of 2025. So far, it has declined owing to durably high interest rates and uncertainty, and weaker demand from abroad, particularly Germany. A turnaround in investment is likely to benefit the construction sector. In addition to the slow decline in interest rates, the government adopted a construction stimulus package in spring 2024. Having earmarked EUR 2.5 billion (0.5% of GDP) for the package, the state is primarily promoting social housing projects. Due to the long planning period, the stimulus will need some time to implement.
EU deficit procedure looming on the horizon
In the past, Austria was considered one of the frugal EU countries. This is currently not the case. Pensions, social benefits, and personnel costs in the public sector are linked to inflation which has driven up expenditure markedly. The tax reform has also reduced public revenue. The incoming government has decided to take a stronger austerity approach. In 2025, the climate bonus will be abolished (extra payment to households to compensate for carbon pricing, EUR -2 billion), there will be cuts to subsidies (EUR -0.9 billion), and educational leave will be abolished (paid working hours for further education, EUR 0.35 billion). On the revenue side, there will be increases through special dividends from state-owned companies (EUR 0.4 billion in 2025), a temporary increase in the stability tax (levy on banks) and the abolition of tax breaks for photovoltaic systems. All these measures together are intended to push the budget to the targeted 3% of GDP and avert an EU deficit procedure against Austria next summer. The initiatives have been in place for less than a year so for the moment it is unclear how successful these measures are.
Austria´s current account surplus grew noticeably in 2024 on back of a strong improvement in the goods trade balance due to better terms of trade. Furthermore, the primary income balance profited from a small recovery in the financial service sector abroad which increased repatriated dividends of investments. While the goods trade surplus should decrease in 2025 with a small improvement in the domestic demand and therefore higher imports, the primary income balance should offset some of the surplus thanks to even higher repatriated investment income, supported by an improved services balance thanks to the uptick in tourism.
Austria’s longest coalition-negotiation finally end with the first “Candy-Coalition”
The far-right FPÖ party won the election in the Nationalrat (lower house) on 29 September 2024. It was their first election victory at national level in Austria's history. The FPÖ was able to improve on the 2019 score by an astonishing 12.7 percentage points to 28.9%, giving the party 57 out of a total of 183 seats. The majority of the extra FPÖ's votes came from the conservative Christian Democratic ÖVP, whose result decreased by 11.2 percentage points compared to the last election to 26.3%, thus leaving it with 51 seats. The result of the social-democratic SPÖ remained unchanged, keeping 41 seats after garnering 21.1% of the vote. The liberal NEOs recorded a slight increase. They gained one percentage point to 9.1% and claimed 18 seats, overtaking the Greens. As in many other Western European countries, the Greens lost a significant amount of support, with its share of seats falling by 5.7 percentage points to just 8.2% of the vote, or 16 seats. Other parties failed to reach the 4% threshold to enter the Nationalrat.
Originally, all parties in the Nationalrat ruled out any form of cooperation with the controversial right-wing extremist leader of the FPÖ, Herbert Kickl. Therefore Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen tasked the then acting Federal Chancellor and ÖVP Chairman Karl Nehammer with forming a coalition, who started talks with the SPÖ and the NEOs to form a “Candy coalition”, named after the colours of the parties, turquoise, red and pink. In early 2025, the NEOs left the coalition talks as they complained about the lack of willingness for bigger reforms from SPÖ and ÖVP. Although SPÖ and ÖVP, alone, would have a majority of 1 vote, the whole coalition talks between all parties broke up. Nehammer relinquished the task of forming a coalition, and Herbert Kickl, the winner of the election, started coalition talks on behalf of the FPÖ with the ÖVP. ÖVP-leader Nehammer, who had always ruled out working with Kickl, stepped down as chancellor and the leader of the ÖVP, and was replaced by Christian Stocker, who was more willing to cooperate with Kickl. However, coalition negotiations failed again as both parties could not reach a compromise in mid-February 2025. As the alternative to a new coalition negotiation would have been a new election in which, according to the polls, the FPÖ would have made even greater gains, the ÖVP, SPÖ and Neos returned to the negotiating table for a further attempt to nail a coalition government. After agreeing to some fiscal reforms, the first candy-coalition was formed, with Christian Stocker appointed as party chairman and the new Federal Chancellor. Unless something happens, the new coalition is expected to continue until the next regular elections are held in 2029.